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Weather Column: 10/5/16 - 10/19/16

Weather Column: 10/5/16 - 10/19/16

The next few days will be marked by mild day and cool overnight temperatures.  Skies will remain sunny and clear until Friday evening, when the clouds roll in.  Saturday and Sunday will have a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.   The precipitation chart shows rain coverage is expected to increase from the south into Socorro county this weekend.[1] 

While an upper-level trough will affect the bulk of the western states this week, it will pass north of us, just barely above our northern border.  After this system devolves, a new trough will form over California and will cycle through late next week.  The Global Forecast (GFS) model only covers through next Thursday, though strong upper-level winds on the western side of this trough mean that it will continue to dig south.  This is shown on the 300mb GFS chart.

What does all of this mean?  It means there will be a chance of rain and thunderstorms for 49ers weekend in Socorro, depending on how this trough evolves and how much moisture will be present after this week's elongated trough.   

Current understanding (looking 10 days out) is that there will be limited moisture return into the area after next Monday, leading to little precipitation on 49ers weekend.

 

Source:  http:///weather.unisys.com

Source:  http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/

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